Why Neil Can’t Win By M.G. Horowitz A balmy Sunday evening during Rose Festival was hardly any time to talk polities. But it was the first Sunday of the month and it was once again Neil Goldschmidt’s turn to appear on KGW TV's “Open Line". Hardly ten minutes had elapsed when host Paul Linnman popped the question. "Are you ready now, Mr. Mayor, to tell us whether you will run for the U.S. Senate?" The Mayor smiled. He allowed that he had traveled around the state to lest the waters for a candidacy. Before he could declare, however, he needed to decide whether “ this is really what I want" and whether Washington was "really where my family and I want to live." But the Clinton Street Quarterly had another question for the Mayor: is this an election you can really win. Your Honor? No one doubts that Neil Goldschmidt can excite urban voters in Portland and Eugene: he’s shown that ability in two previous elections and in past appearances in both cities. But how would he fare outside the urban nexus — in semi-urban yet telling comities like Jackson. Marion, Deschutes. and Umatilla? Io ask the question is to also ask its twin: how is Bob Packwood doing in those counties? Has the two-term Senator endeared himself to the voters in those regions? "As long as he doesn’t make any obvious blunders — and he's avoided that — any awareness of his lack of a record would have to be created," Bend columnist Jackman Wilson told Ihe Quarterly. “He's been a Senator for two terms, he hasn’t been indicted! — it may be easy for people to think that he’s doing all right. They may not be aware of his stand on issues but they haven't heard of him in any kind of unpleasant context so they have fairly neutral feelings towards him, which is really not too bad the way things are." “ In Central Oregon, then,” we inquire, “no news is good news?" “Yeah. A) Ullman keeps getting elected time after time and he hasn’t really done all that much for the district. About ah he's delivered is a Visitor Center six miles south of here." "What about Goldschmidt’s image in this region?" Wilson pauses. “ If people have any awareness of Goldschmidt at all, he’s perceived as a liberal Portland politician and people would question his understanding of problems in this part of the state.” I glance at a recent editorial about Goldschmidt in the Bend Bulletin. Its title: "His Interest” . The report is much the same from southern Oregon, where Medford reporter David Force appraised a possible Packwood-Goldschmidt match. “ Packwood hasn’t been especially successful at becoming personally identified with pork barrel projects in southern Oregon," Force wrote us, "but he has a name familiarity edge, which is probably adequate to win the election all by itself. Goldschmidt is known in a relatively positive sense in Medford, for cooperating in the city's efforts to develop a viable downtown area based on Portland’s experiences. But southern Oregon also includes rural counties where Goldschmidt’s association with Portland and urban issues might be a negative factor no matter how successful his involvement in them." As political observers, both Wilson and Force can conceive, of course, of a Goldschmidt upset. “ If there was a good campaign,” allows Wilson, “good enough to where names and faces and issues became familiar to the voters, I think Goldschmidt could win here.” “Goldschmidt might make considerable capital," adds Force, “by emphasizing Packwood as a member of the Washington establishment. But name familiarity gaps can be overcome only with heavy campaign spending. Goldschmidt would need an extremely well-financed campaign. Yet Packwood is already winning the 1979 Money Election.” Ah, money, the icon of post-war politics. Why is it so necessary for upsetting an incumbent or repressing a challenger? "A political campaign," one veteran campaigner explained to us. “ is an educational process. The educating that goes on is to educate the voters to vote for your guy instead of the other guy. If I had a choice between hiring a psychologist or a political scientist, I would take a psychologist every time because at least hopefully he understands human nature. People will give you all kinds of reasons why they vote for you but the real reason is that they like you better." “How do you get them to like you better?” we ask. “ I’ll mention some things you spend money on that you might not think about. The first money you get in a campaign has to go to staff, people don't even think about that. In addition to that, you're going to have headquarters expenses. You’re going to have travel expenses. You got all that — and we could be talking now of $100,000 easy — before you even think of spending any money on media. If you want to have billboards, billboards are expensive. 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