Page 20 RAIN February/March 1981 ACC-ESS----------------... When it comes to ele~tricity, the Pacific Northwest is probably the most studied area in the country. This year's crop of studies is particularly good. Here are a few you might want t0 loek at: - KB Passive Solar E.conamics: A Marginal Cost Benefit Analysis of Passive Solar Designs by David Baylon and Davis Straub, 1980, 11 pp., $2.00 from: Ecotope Group 2332 E. Madison Seattle,.WA 98112 With the large difference (approximately two ord_ers_of mag11:itude)between the present hydro-electric energy generation costs and the future thermal energy costs, the Northwest consumers are uniquely in need of proper price signal or policy formation that accounts for the future costs in the present. Ecotope has established a solid reputation as one of the oldest and most innovative solar groups in the Northwest. This paper marks the first tim~ anyone (including utilities) has attempted a detailed analysis of passive solar costs from a·utility point of view. Oregon Alternative Energy Development Commission (AEDC) Future Renewable Final Report, 1980, 1~8 pp., free from: Oregon Department of Energy Room 102 Labor & Industries Bldg. Salem, OR 97310 , Despite the presence of Donald Hodel (former BPA administrator and Reagan's choice for Undersecretary of Interior) on the Commission, this report is a conservative, well thought out estimate of renewable energy potential in a state that imports nearly all of its energy. (A somewhat similar report on renew~ble energy potential in Washington \Vas quashed by former Governor Dixy Lee Ray, who felt that it was too positive toward solar energy). AEDC concluded that about 10% of the renewable energy attainable with existing technology can be realized by the y.ear 2000, given current economic, environmental,.and institutipnal barriers. · The repo,rt includes an estimate of marginal costs that is slightly misleading. Instead o( comparing future renewable energy costs t6 the cost of future coal and nuclear plants, AEDC used a recel}tly'completed Oregon coal plant (expected to 4eliver power for about 4 cents/kwh) as its thermal baselipe=But overall, the study is very good. The six task forces examining different renewable ehergy options have also issued their own reports, which include a description of the technoJ<?gies involved and the assumptions made by the Commission. AEDC has also made a series of recommendations that have been largely adopted by Gov~rnor Atiyeh. If those recommendations are fully implemented, Oregon will set an.ambitious precedent for the entire region. Pacific Northwest Residential Energy . Survey Executive Summary/, by Elrick & Lavidge, Inc., 1980, 85 pp., free from: Branch of Power Requirements/PRR .. Bm;meville Power Administ,ation P.O. Box3621 Portland, OR 97208 BPA does do some things right. This study of Northwest residential energy consumption patterns is the first part of.a superb data base BPA is assembling for assessing energy conservation potential and future~energy trends in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. This is certain to be the standard reference irt the field for the next decade or so. Region at the Crossroads: the Pacific Northwest Searches for New Sources of Electric Energy (EMD-78:-76), August 1978, 266 pp.;Hypothetical Transfer of Construction Funds from Nuclear Powerplants to Electricity Conservaion and Renewable Energies (B-198245), April 1980, 18 pp., both available free from: U.S. General Accounting Office Wa~hington, DC 20548 • The General Accounting Office(GAO) has issued several reports on regionalelectrical energy policy. Most of them tend to walk a 1 narrow line between utilities and renewable energy advocates, but overall the GAO.has ·taken a dim view of the rush toward thermal generation in the region. Region at the Crossroads examines three possible energy scenarios, ranging from near total reliance on n,ew thermal generation to a st~ong commitment,'to conservation and renewable energy. This was the first ~tudy made that raised the possibility that a renewable energy scenario was not only substan- •• tially cheaper, but more capable of meeting predicted power shortages as well, since the technology is somewhat more reliable than large thermal plant.?. • . The April 1980 report is based on the 1978 study, and its appearance threw regional utilities into a panic. Under heavy'pressure from BPA, WPPSS, and the aluminum industry, GAO has hastened to echo the utility position that the institutions involved are too inflexible to make conservation and renewa- , ble energy a realistic long-term option. Nevertheless, these two reports make interesting reading, and both are highly recommended. Causes of Cost Overruns and Schedule Delays on the Five WPPSS Nuclear Power Plants, 1981, 105 pp., free from: Washington State Senate Energy and Utilities Committee Capitol Campus Olympia, WA'-98500 This report to the Washington State Senate is the latest and most devasta_ting of a series of recent inquiries into WPPSS financial and management practices, clearly indicating that the WPPSS plants are among the least economically viable energy options available. This excellent discussion of the incredible problems WPPSS is having completing the plants includes a fascinating glimpse into what is involved in a major thermal construction project. Choosing an Electrical Energy Future for the Pacific·Northwest: An Alternative Scenario (DOE/CS/10045-T 1) by Ralph . C. Cavanagh, Lawrie Mott, J. Roger Beers, and Terry L. Lash, 1980, 328 pp., $18.00 paper, $3.50 microfiche from: National Technical _Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 This scenario does not unveil the most op- ' timistic vision of what is practically achievable within the next 15 years. For example, we have in some cases accepted projections, made by BPA and others, which in our view tend to overstate likely electrical demand in those years. In other instances, we have assumed that new, more energy-efficient technologies will be commercially available at a slower rate than we think.is achievable; and we have igtiored other opportunities to increase energy efficiencies. We have chosen this course in order to show that a practical alternative to massive new thermal generation can emerge under fairly conservative assumptions. The Natural Resources Defense Council has led the way in establishing a coherent alternative to the utility scenario. This 1980 revision of its 1977 study is better than ever, reflecting·the enormous changes that have occur:red in renewable energy economics and technology in th€ last three years. After wading through mountains of utility projections based on obscure assumptions, this report is a joy to read. Every assertion made by the authors is well researched, extensively documented, and explicitly stated: making it easy to analyze how sensitive the conclusion of the report is to different assumptions. If you are serjously interested in regional energy policy, this study is required reading.
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