Page 18 RAIN FebruarylMarch 1981 Power Play cont. The Renewable Scenario Needless to say, public disclosure of the implications of HTPP created quite a stir in some circles. The furor increased in late 1976 when the BPA released a landmark report on regional energy conservation potential indicating, among other things, that conservation measures were up to six times more cost effective than nuclear power (remember that this is at a time when power from nuclear plants was expected to cost around 2½ cents/kwh), and that a regional conservation program alone could cut projected demand by the equivalent of seven large thermal plants. A few months later, the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) released a report, showing that a strong commitment to conservation combined with cost-effective improvements in appliance and machinery efficiency, along with the phasing out of outdated aluminum smelters and a minimal reliance on new sources of renewable energy, could reduce annual load growth to about 0.5%.a year, or a:bout one-tenth of the growth rate prediced by utilities at the time. In a report commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy to check out the accuracy of the NRDC scenario, the TRW Corporation (an up and coming multinational, also one of DOE's largest research contractors) concluded that not only was the NRDC report accurate and feasible, but that implementation of the Scenario would cost regional ratepayers $8.5 billion (1980 $) less than HTPP. The U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) followed with a report a year later indicat~ ing that conservation and renewable energy could save the equivalent of 16 large thermal plants, substantially reduce future environmental impacts, and save up to $16 billion (1980 $) in the process. The rapid rise in thermal plant costs over the last three years make these studies seem almost like ancient history, and events have rapidly surpassed the feeble efforts of utilities to respond. Seattle City Light, the region's largest utility, pulled out of WPPSS projects 4 and 5 after concluding that conservation was a cheaper The ultimate utility scenariovvould systematically loot the Northwest. option. Local opposition has stopped 5he construction of six nuclear plants in Washington and Oregon, and Oregon and Montana have passed initiatives essentially eliminating future nuclear plants in those states. Montana and Washington have also passed initiatives restricting uranium mining and radioactive waste disposal, respectively. Meanwhile, the financial problems that have plagued the WPPSS projects from the beginning have become so severe that several utilities are facing imminent bankruptcy. ' • The increasing economic advantages of renewable energy in the region have been highlighted by an April 1980 report directly comparing current nuclear plant costs to the solar alternative. Acting on a request by Oregon Congressman James Weaver, the U.S. GAO examined what would happen.if the money committed to two nuclear projects in Washington state (WPPSS Projects 4 and 5) was spent on conservation and solar instead. The GAO concluded that even after $1.6 billion was spent to mothb~ll the two projects,.implementation of a mild conservation incentive program would save more energy than the combined output of the two plants, that those savings would occur before the·WPPSS projects are expected to be completed, and that the region would save up.to $1.1 billion at the same time. Cost increases since last April have increased the cost advantage of abandoning WPPSS 4 and 5 to nearly $2 billion. A new report by the NRDC has expanded on the theme outlined by the GAO, conclusively showing that a renewable energy scenario based on fairly conservative assumptions and a.comprehensive incentive program would cut projected 1995 electrical c,onsumption nearly in half. The NRDC scenario would eliminate HTPP completely, and would make completion of four thermal plants ~urrently under construction unnecessary as well. The conclusions o'f the NRDC Scenario have recently been supported by a study by the Oregon Alternative Energy Development Commission, which shows that even with existing economic, technical, and institutional barriers, Oregon is capable of meeting all of its futur~ electrical energy needs with con~ervation and locally based renewable energy sources. The Regional Power Bill The utility response to this overwhelming mass of evidence has been a timid commitment to conservation (ironically, by making any commitment at all, Northwest utilities have come to be consid., ered among the most progressive in the country) combined with a frantic push for a f~deral bailout of HTPP. Those efforts have been rewarded with the recent passage of the Pacific Northwest Electric Power Planning and Conservation Act, otherwise known as the
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