POPULATION "City Limits: Emerging Constraints on Urban Growth" by Kathleen Newland, Worldwatch Paper #38, August 1980, -$2.00 from: Worldwatch Institute 1776 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. • Washington, DC 20036 By the year 2000 more than half the world's people will be living in cities. Six;ty of these cities will have populations of five million or ~ore and 12 of the 15 largest will be in Third World countries. These startling Unit~d Nations projections point up not only th~ dimensions of near-term global population growth, but a distorted pattern of development which Worldwatch researcher Kathleen Newland contends could prove to be "costly, inefficient, and perhaps unsustainable." It strikes some observers as odd that millions of people in the Third World are choosing to leave the countryside and live in the crowded slums of cities whose industries cart absorb only a small fraction of them, "but make no mistake," says Newland, "people migrate to the cities because, all things considered, they expect to be better off there.'' Public investment is concentrated in urban. areas as are hospitals and schools, water and electrical systems. Jobs, when found, pay much more than the rural average. There are . trade-offs, though: one is ever-stiffening competition in an already overcrowded job market. Another is a greater vulnerability to price increases and supply disruptions of food and fuel. In an era of growing resource shortages and worldwide population growth, this urban vulnerability can only increase. .Many planners and policymakers treat, urbanization as an irresistable force and equate it with economic prosperity, says Newland, when in reality long-term prosperity must derive from a healthy agricultural base. That would suggest a shift of investment priorities from the cities to the countryside, and Newland outlines some appropriate technology applications for such investment. Rural networks of labor-intensive industries could be developed to process agricultural goods and make inexpensive products for farmers. The farmers would, in turn, have new markets among the industrial workers. Additional rural jobs could derive from small-scale renewable energy projects, and the resulting low-cost power would enhance the economic viability of rural industry. Such measures have merit in themselves and might be successful in ste~ming the rural exodus to the cities, but in the absence of vigorous family planning efforts, urban growth would still continue at a rapid pace. Like many recent population-related studies, this one is ultimately not very hopeful, but Newland does suggest that a serious commitment to rural development coupled with a sensible population policy would at least permit urban growth to proceed "at a more deliberate and orderly pace." -JF Population and Its Problems, by George· V. Zito, 1979, $9.95 from: • Human Sciences Press 72 Fifth Avenue New York, NY10011 This basic textbook of demographic concepts and tools is oriented (in the words of the author) toward "those whose interest in demography is only peripheral to their interest in American society-in general." It is readable for someone just becoming interested in demographics and enlightening for those who have worked with, but not formally studied, demographic tools. The author From Earthworks ENERGY Women's Energy Tool Kit, by Joan . Byalin, 1980, 77 pp., from: Consumer Action Now 355 Lexington Ave. New York, NY10017 Why a·"Women's Energy Tool Kit"? Because women aren't brought up to recognize tools, to know a sill plate from a parting stop, or to be able to ask for good advice in a manner which will get them good advice. The "Tool Kit" may be sin;iplistic, particul~rly as regards heat loss and energy savings, but in general it's an excellent guide to weatherization techniques for anyone. The book covers ca~lking, weatherstripping, homemade storm windows and window curtains, shading, insulating, choosing contractors, financing, career opportunities, and more. Obviously in 75 pages there's a lot skimmed over and the reading list at the back should be given more tha:n a passing glance. Venting in attics, f~r example,.is critical and yet only December 1980 RAIN Page 7 spends considerable time applying population data to the social problems associated with marriage, divorce, crime, and scarcity, and his analysis of the effects of the post-war baby boom will be of particular interest to members of that generation. According to . Zito, the baby boom children who, as adults, have found incredible competition for jobs and housing, both from their peers and from the larger population, will continue to play the role of "invaders" in our society throughout their lifespans. In looking at population pyramids, they will always appear as the big, and somewhat troubling, bulge. -Jane Peters Jane is on the Board of Responsible Urban Neighborhood Technology, a Portland-based appropriate technology group which is involved in an integral urban house project. barely mentioned. Still, it'd make a great gift ' for anyone about to begin managing energy use at horn~. -CC ENVIRONMENT . Earthworks: Ten Years on the Environmen.tal Front, edited by Mary Lou Van Deventer, 1980, 268 pp., $8.95 from: Friends of the Earth Books 124 Spear Street San Francisco, CA 941~5 Here, under one cover, is the best writing to appear in Friends of the Earth's excellent newspaper, Not Man Apart, since its beginning in 1970. Included are dozens of articles on wilderness preservation, the limits to growth, the promise of renewable energy, and the anti-nuclear struggle. Among the writers are Amory Lovins, Garrett Hardin, Lester Brown, Frances Moore Lappe, and Edward Abbey. Earthworks is a special treat to read and a fitting celebration of Friends of the Earth's tenth anniversary. -JF
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