continued o~her words, the number which was two years earlier greeted with hqwls of derision when I put it in Foreign Affairs was then the official forecast in 1978. Indeed, the low oil price forec~st'., \vhich I will stick in the right-hand column because they require supernatural intervention, averages ·to 123, and those numbers are right where they ought to be. long~term United.States energy need around 10 or 15 quads. I do take that seriously now. I now think that my old forecasts are enormously inflated.,Indeed, as I read review drafts of papers people are doing, it seems that the 1989 numbers . are going to come out exactly where they ought to according to my little predictions here. Now w_hat I would like you to observe is that this is a diagonal °:~tnx. Every two years you see things are neatly popping down mto the next column! We have nowhere hit bottom yet. For example, we just found that if we had a really energyconscious materials policy, just that would roughly treble our national ·energy efficiency. We did not know that, so it is not If you take seriously some of the latest European 'results and apply them to American conditions, then. we ought to be levelling off at a long-term U.S. energy need aroun'd 10·or 15 quads. I do take that seriously now ... in any of these numbers. And if you take seriously some of the latest European results, especially from Britain and Germany, and apply them to American conditions, then in about another two rows people ought to be levelling off pretty much at a Clearly, if our long-term energy needs are going to level·off and come down a bit, rather than zooming upward, then we Amory Lovins is not the only one talking about the possibilities evolving out of increased end-use energy efficiency. A string.ofnew studies coming from different perspectives are starting to line up impressive evidence, sector by sector, that upping the productivity ofenergy used - through improved industrial processes, higher mileage cars and trucks, better building insulation, improved appliances, and so on - we can greatly reduce (and in some cases eliminate) our dependency on depletable or dangerous sources of new energy with little impact on economic activity and lifestyles, and without having to beg the moral equivalencies of war or crisis. These conclusions are well-grounded in the 5 years of measurable changes that have already taken place since the Arab oil embargo-changes which have occured largely in and of their owneconomic logic. As tbe following reports conclude, the room for further improvements is vast. -SA • "Could Britain Be Energy Self-Sufficient by 2000? New Report Stresses Efficiency Gains, Better Forecasting, Reduced ,Nuclear," in Soft Energy Notes, May 1979, $2..50 from: International PrQject for Soft Energy_Paths 124 Spear St. San Francisco, CA 94105 A Low Energy Strategy for the United Kingdom (1979, Gerald Leach et al), aptly summarized in Soft Energy Notes, May '79, is most notable in that its findings are based on an extremely detailed breakdown of final energy use in the UK by different fuels, types of appliance and end-use purpose - in all, almost 400 categories. Applying efficiency estimates for existing and new equipment, the Leach team then scales each sector and use to an expanded economy and population, assuming improved living standards, and finds Page 6 RAIN November 1979 RESOURCES ----------~--- that major growth can be sustained for the next 5 0 years with less primary energy use in 2025 than today. Specifi- ·cally, coal use would require only moderate increases, oil and gas use could be limited to North Sea reserves, and Britian's nuclear program and breeder reactor development could be virtually abandoned. To help prove its point, the Leach study assumes conservatively that renewables will make no significant contribution until the year 2000. Low Energy Strategy concludes that two major policy level approaches are necessary to make it all happen: 1) government would need to set various energy efficiency and performance standards, and 2) consumers of all kinds would need to be adequately informed of "best practise" technologies. No measures would be required that have any effect on freedom of choice. This . study is also av_ailable in' its entirety, $16 postpaid, from: International_Institute for Environment and Development, 10 Percy St;, London W.1, Enghmd. "Interim Report: Low Energy Scenario for Great Britain," Soft Energy Paths VII, Volume II, July 1979, $2.50 from: International Project for Soft Energy Paths 124 Spear S't. San Francisco, CA 94105 David Olivier's interim report, Low Energy Scenario for the United Kingdom, also mentioned above, is the perfect follow up to the Leach study, demonstrating the _increased p.otential for energy efficiencies when coupled with soft energy sources. Utilizing a sector by sector analysis, Olivier's report takes Leach et al one step further by assuming a major contribution from 'active solar systems, biomass liquid fuels and wind generation. What he finds is 1 that two-thirds or more of the U.K. 's total fuel demands in the year 2025 can be met by ren_ewables. In that same time .frame, coal and natural gas consumption could drop by 7 s· percent, oil needs could be,reduced by 90 percent, and uranium-too bad- could be cut 100 percent by th~ year 2000. Low Energy Scenario thus calculates total British primary energy demand would drop ·so percent while economic growth trebles. In other words, through a combination of conservation, renewable energy • sources and a variety of cost-effective technical advancements, primary energy ' use is capable of declining by a factor of six relative to total economic activity. This interim analysis in Soft Energy Notes examines the potential delivered energy improvements by five major energy use sectors: domestic, commercial, industrial, agricultural and transportation. A complete version, when available, will be announced by SEN. The Easy Path Energy Plan, by Vince Taylor, September 1979, 41 pp., from: Union of Concerned Scientists 1208 Massachusetts Ave. Cambridge,,MA 02138 Upon examining our own situation, The Easy Path Energy Plan- the first study to me_asure-the contribution of efficiency improvements in U.S. energy ' supply - projects the same kind of results: by reinforcing the present trends toward improved efficiency, the United States could begin reducing oil imports, cut back on domestic production of • _same, and halve its dependency on nuclear power by 1985 - all without synthetic fuels. 1 Dr. Vince Taylor says the "remarkable revolution" of energy efficiency is alre.ady under way. From 1973 to 1978, energy use in America grew only 4 percent, compared to 22 percent in the five years previous, of which only a small, part of the difference was accounted for
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