Page 14 RAIN May 1978 WIND ENERGY: Net Energy & Jobs by Don Bain The Department of Energy has funded several studies called Wind Energy Mission Analyses since 1975. One such contract went to the Lockheed-California Co. where Ugo Coty and Michael Dubey, the principal investigators, were aided by researcher Don Bain. He has since been awarded an a. t. energy grant to assess the residential market for small wind-electric systems and the potential job impact of that market in California. Other wind energy articles by Don, based on the Lockheed report, may be found in recent issues of Wind Power Digest ($6/yr. for 4 issues from WPD, American Wind Energy Association, 54468 CR 31, Bristol, IN 46507). - LJ According to Lockheed's Wind Energy Mission Analysisl for the DOE, there could be significant impacts on the national economy resulting from the implementation of wind power on a large scale. Not only will aerospace firms and large construction outfits benefit, but so will the thousands of small firms needed to sell, service and install wind energy conversion systems (WECS) in the 1 to 50kW range. The manufacture of these small machines, of which a potential market of at least 60,620 to 186,640 units could exist by 1980, is ideally suited for small- to medium-size firms. Highly sophisticated technologies and skills are not needed to produce these smaller WECS. As a result, many small businesses, outside of the major cities, could thrive on the small WECS market that could expand to approximately 3,029,900 to 18,837,300 installed units by 1995. Even the realization of just a quarter of this potential would put a lot of people to work in regional businesses. Those who are willing to scour the countryside for a beat-up WECS that has to be rebuilt before it is usable, and others who are making their own from scratch in the garage really represent the tip of the iceberg yet to come. The other end of the WECS size spectrum is represented by the large, 1 to 4 MW, machines and the institutions capable of supplying them en masse. The potential utility market for these giants, 175 to 360 feet in diameter, could expand to 78,800 wind-turbine generators (WTGs) in place by 1995 depending on fuel cost and electric demand. Already, an economically competitive market for WECS exists for use by electric utility systems having both hydroelectric facilities for storage and windy sites. The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA, now part of DOE) is a good example. There are many sufficiently windy sites with close tie-in to the extensive BPA grid, and they have extensive hydro-storage capability. As a representative of BPA has said, "We would use them if we could get 'em." Since DOE has a wind energy program that has as some of its goals the commercialization and use of WECS, where are the units for a practical, full-sized demonstration program? The large industries needed for utility-size WECS production apparently do not have at their helms people with sufficient leadership and foresight to direct some of their manufacturing capacity to be converted to WECS production without some form of federal assistance.
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