Community Resilience to Climate Change: Theory, Research and Practice

126 Association between dimensions of resilience-related capacities Examination of the relationship between the three capacities reveals that they are only moderately associated. For example, 53% of respondents who said they were likely to be prepared also said they were likely to recover, compared to just 10% of those who were unlikely to be prepared. Odd ratios show that respondents who were likely to prepare were five times more likely to recover compared to respondents unlikely to prepare (Fig. A1.3). Nevertheless, when using the four-point Likert scale, the rank order correlations among Fig. 1. Subjective self-evaluations of resilience-related capacities to extreme flooding in Tanzania. these three types of capacity were all less than 0.5 (Fig. A1.4). The highest correlation (0.45) is between reporting being able to prepare for a flood and to recover from it; while the lowest (0.25) is between being able to recover from a flood and to change one’s way of life in response to it. We also constructed binary variables (likely/unlikely) and found very similar correlations. We examined whether these items could be combined to form an index of a latent construct of resilience. The three items did not meet the established threshold for internal consistency (Cronbach’s alpha is 0.62, below the commonly accepted threshold of 0.7). However, item selection was also tested by principal components analysis that showed that the three items loaded strongly onto one variable with an eigenvalue higher than 1 (the threshold recommended by Kaiser’s rule; Fig. A1.5). This gives some support for constructing an index of perceptions of resilience; however, in this paper we focus on analysis of the three components individually to obtain more insights into factors that are associated (or not) with each. We defer discussion of the value of a composite index for future work. Factors associated with perceptions of resilience We analyzed the three resilience-related capacities across a range of variables of interest (Figs. 2 and 3, Tables A1.1–A1.6). Male and female respondents provide very similar responses across the board, though this may not be surprising given that the survey deliberately asks respondents to rate household-level capacities, not individual ones. Fewer farmers than nonfarmers (and people in rural versus urban areas) report an ability to recover fully from an extreme flood event within six months. Responses are very similar across occupations and rural/urban zone with respect to the perceived capacity to prepare for and adapt, though a lower share of farmers and rural residents report that it is “extremely likely” that they would adapt to an extreme flood. Education is positively associated with the perceived capacity to recover from a flood but not with the capacity to be prepared or to adapt on average. However, far fewer respondents with a higher education believe it is “not at all likely” they would be prepared for or able to adapt to an extreme flood, relative to those with less education. Wealth quintile is not linked with perceived preparedness but a higher share of respondents in wealthier quintiles report that they could recover and change their livelihoods in response to an extreme flood event (Fig. 3). Self-reported capacities differ more markedly in line with the recent experience of flooding. Indeed, a higher share of those who had an experience of extreme flooding in the two years prior to the survey reported that they would be likely or very likely to prepare and to recover (but not to change their livelihood). For example, one-quarter of the population with recent flood exposure reported it was “not at all likely” they would be prepared for or recover fully from extreme flooding within a six-month period, compared with over one-third (35–36%) of those who had not experienced a flood. This suggests either that perceptions are influenced by experience of flooding,