PSU Magazine Winter 2003

f the hundreds of questions surrounding the potential for war in lraq, one of the most compelling is, "What or who will take the place of Saddam Hussein?" Saddam's strong-arm dictatorship is considered the most repressive in the Middle East, if not the world. His forced departure could produce, at worst, violent chaos. At best, if man– aged tactically and over years or decades by the United States and its allies, it could result in a form of democracy in which Iraq's citizens have a free voice Lo steer this large, Speculation abounds over what the future holds for this region. troubled country into a prosperous future. And if it can happen in Iraq, can Western-style democracy sweep through the rest of the Middle East in the next few years7 The answer, according to Middle East experts at Portland Stale, is no– at least not the way Americans and Europeans are used Lo thinking about democracy. The Middle East is simply too steeped in its own regional history, centuries-old conflicts, and entrenched ways of governing for Western-style democracy to take a massive foothold. 6 PSU MAGAZlNE WINTER 2003 That's not to say that it can't happen on a smaller scale. ln fact, in some ways it's happening now. Ronald Tam– men, director of PSU's Hatfield School of Government, points out that some fairly open societies exist in the vast, diverse region, but they often share borders with monarchies or totalitarian regimes. lt's a part of the world that defies any simple definition. PSU fac– ulty point to only two characteristics that bind the Middle East: the strong influence of the Muslim faith and antipathy over lsrael's relationship with the Palestinians. By John Kirkland "Most Americans think all of the Middle East is authoritarian, but that's not so. One thing l can't overempha– size is that one size does not fit all. Each country has its own characteris– tics," says Tammen. Authoritarian regimes in the Middle East govern Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and, of course, Iraq. But within that group are different forms of govern– ment. Saudi Arabia is a monarchy with strict religious laws; Egypt is what Tammen describes as a "strongman democracy" that has elections, but is essentially controlled from the top; and Syria is a tough, brutal, repressive gov– ernment that is more secular than gov– ernments in some other Muslim states. In other, less authoritarian countries, various levels of democracy exist within monarchies 0ordan), strict religious rule (Iran), and in at least one country in which the military has been known Lo overthrow governments in the face of democratic elections (Turkey). espite scauered attempts at granting power to the peo– ple, the cards are generally stacked against democracy in the Mid– dle East. Often it's the fault of the rul– ing governments. Jon Mandaville, director of PSU's Miclclle East Studies Center, says democracies are systems in which interest groups are free to work out their differences in an environment that eventually produces balance. "This happens when the govern– ment trusts the people. Absolute monarchies never trust the people. The Saudi royal family is about as absolute as Louis the XVI," he says. lf the presence of absolute monar– chies in the Middle East is a barrier to democracy, so is the '.act that the coun– tries are so young. Even though the area is called the Cradle of Civilization, many of the countries that inhabit the Middle East have only been around a few decades-carved out by the domi– nating imperial powers after the two world wars. Mandaville again points to Saudi Arabia. "It's a baby. The Saudis have been learning how to run a government– any kind of a government, with a budget and a treasury and an infra– structure-only since 1955." ln fact, countries throughout the whole region have been trying since the end of World War II to figure out how to rule themselves and provide for their citizens. Gamal Abdel Nasser inspired much of the Arab world when he came to power in Egypt in the 1950s. His goal was Lo modernize Egypt through socialism, and he espoused the possibility of a strong, united Arab world. But his plan ultimately failed. In an article titled "Why They Hate Us," which appeared in Newsweeh a month