PSU Magazine Winter 2003

down the list," says Tammen. "There are probably yearnings among the peo– ple for more participation, but they have no ability to organize and go to the streets. The notion of 'people power,' like in formerly communist European nations where people want to rise up and become democratic, is not prevalent in the Middle East," he says. One notable exception is in Iran, where thousands of studems rallied in the streets recently to protest the death sentence of Hashem Aghajari, a college professor who was condemned to hang for insulting lslam and questioning lran's clerical rule. New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman called the protests "... the most promising trend in the Muslim world. lt is a combina– tion of Manin Luther and Tiananmen Square-a drive for an Islamic refor– mation combined with a spontaneous student-led democracy movement." But as promising as the movement may be, it's not likely to be drawing much inspiration from the democracies that are already in the region. Democ– racy has not provided relief from poverty in countries such as Egypt, and it's not likely to do so in other countries either, Tammen says. he area simply has no tradi– tion of democracy, and Damis says that reason alone may create the biggest barrier Lo it sweeping through the region in the foreseeable future . He describes the region as having a long tradition of vested interests and authoritarian regimes that are wary and unwilling to share power. That includes lraq , which may be no great candidate for democ– racy, no mauer what the United States might want after Saddam is gone. Yet one tool of democracy, a free press, is already prevalent throughout the region in the form of al-Jazeera, the state– run satellite television station that broad– casts from the tiny emirate of Qatar. Like journalism everywhere, al-Jazeera has the power to shake up the status quo. Qatari diplomats have received hundreds of official com– plaints from other Arab states about al-Jazeera's relatively uncensored news broadcasts and controversial political commentaries since its establishment in 1996. Kuwaiti officials regularly complain that al-Jazeera's news cover– age is too sympathetic to Iraq. Saudi officials insist that its programs are anti-Islamic, while Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, according to the Middle East Intelligence Bulletin , was furious two years ago over al-Jazeera's frequem interviews with leaders of more mili– talll lslamist Palestinian groups. "Every Arab regime has found something in al-Jazeera's programs to complain about, which is precisely why it is by far the most popular satel– lite news channel in the Middle East," the Bulletin states. Following the September 11 , 2001, terrorist attacks in the United States, al– Jazeera stirred controversy among mem– bers of the Bush administration for running a tape of Osama bin Laden call– ing for a holy war. The Washington Post quoted Ibrahim Hilal, al-Jazeeras chief editor, as saying, "Arabs accuse us of being pro-American, even pro-Israeli. The Americans say we're pro-Taliban. We must be doing something right. " amis and Mandavi.lle agree that the free 0ow of informa– tion through the region has the power to change societies, but whether that change is toward democ– racy as we know it in the United States remains to be seen. One thing al-Jazeera is doing is giving its 35 mil– lion viewers a regular dose of the con– Oict between lsrael and the Palestinians. In this way it is helping to fuel an already fuming resentmelll of both lsrael and the United States. That resentment could explode in the com– ing years if a war in Iraq is seen by Mid– dle East countries as a unilateral attack on the Arab world-a real possibility, according to Damis and Mandaville. What is likely to be in the best interests of the United States is not democracy in the Middle East, but sta– bility. "Democracy in the short term is destabilizing," Damis says. Even if Iraq becomes democratic in the years ahead, he sees little possibility of spillover to surrounding coumries. "The nature of the surrounding states is pretty well set. There may be minor reverberations, but not major. " Mandaville is hoping that the rever– berations from the current U.S. conflict with Iraq are small. He is expecting to host a delegation of Saudi faculty at PSU in March for a symposium about Saudi Arabia today. If the U.S. goes to war, that evem would likely be can– celled. For Mandaville, the less med– dling by the United States in that part of the world, the better. "The level of democracy in the Mid– dle East is about the same as in other areas of the world: South America, Africa, Asia. A small number of people The government of Egypt, headquartered in Cairo (pictured) , exerts a heavy hand on civic freedoms in the country. © Gle11 Alliso11/Pict11reQ11est in the U.S. government are looking at the conflict with Iraq as an opportu– nity to democratize the whole Middle East. I hope they don't, " he says. D (John Kirkland, a Portland freelance w1ite1; wrote the article "Th ere's Some– thing in the Air" in the fall 2002 PSU Magazine.) WINTER 2003 PSU MAGAZINE 9