PSU Magazine Winter 1992

"I don't see it happening," says Bill Blosser, chairman of the state Land Conservation and Development Com– mi sion (LCDC). "LCDC has never taken the po ition that the state has any right to determine where people shou ld live." Even if the tate did decide to foster development of new citie outside the Willamette Valley, it would face huge practical cha llenges. Growth will naturally occur where development already exists becau e that's where the airports, univer itie , go ds, and ser– vices are, says Blosser. "Everybody is here already, so why go el ewhere? It's a snowballing effect." Blosser ca lled the building of new towns "extraordinarily expen ive and difficult," pointing to the examples of Columbia, Md.; Levittown, Pa.; and Reston, Va.-town built to achieve exactly what Tou lan is uggesting. Where he and other planners agree is the need for higher den ity. Over the last 10 years, LCDC ha established housing density goa ls for the Portland metro area that seek to contain growth and foster mass transit, and it is discussing applying the same standards to other parts of the state. Winslow Brooks, Hillsboro planning director and a PSU alumnus, says the population may be ready for it. "We've already seen a desire for sma ller lot , even in my 20 years in planning," he says. "It used to be that 10,000- and 12,000-square-foot lots were the standard, and now people are saying that' a little too much to take care of. We are becoming further removed from our agrarian roots, plus we're working for a living." A the average age of the population becomes o lder, Brooks envisions a greater demand for condos, row houses, and other alternative to the tradition– al single family home. An example in Hillsboro is the Tanasbourne development, containing 950 apartments in a planned space, effi– ciently located close to shopping and employment. Brooks sees that type of commercial, employment, and high– density residential pattern continuing. "The question is, if you have a fami – ly with three children, is that where you want to live? In Paris you would be '' We are likely to go down in history as the first generation of Americans that is so selfish that we are leaving our children with overall conditions that are not as good as the conditions that our parents left for us," says Toulan. "There is no alternative but talking about the long term. '' used to it, but we're not u ed to it in thi country. But that's changing," he ays. METRO, a regional government for the Portland area, is in the proce s of forming a SO-year plan, called Region 2040, that will accompli h some of what TouIan i suggesting. The Region 2040 project will take a broad range of land-use goals and objec– tives for the Portland metropolitan area, and give them specific fo rm in much the ame blueprint fashion that Toulan advocates. METRO is just beginning the proce sand wi ll be work– ing on it with the Oregon Department of Tran portation, Tri Met, and city and county managers throughout the metropolitan area. It will show the best ways for accom– modating growth within the metro area's current urban growth boundary over the next 20 years, and it will draw a picture of how growth sh uld be shaped outside the boundary in the 0 years beyond that, according to Mark T urpel, a enior planner at METRO and the project manager for Region 2040. How will the region look in the next half-century? At this stage, METRO ha only a blurry picture, made up mo tly of question rather than answer . For examp le, Turpel says that a goal for the region i to provide a better balance of transportation choices to off: et ou r current pattern in which 86 percent of trip throughout the metro area are by car. Region 2040 will flesh out that goa l with specific about where and how mass transit shou ld take up the burden. "We want to portray c n equence and choice ," he says. Planning a half-century into the future is bound to be a difficult task, ay Turpel, if only because no one can pred ict what technological changes might be in store. For that rea on, Region 2040 will be flex ible and open to change, he says. But if planning ahead SO years is hard, what about planning ahead a full century? Toulan does not believe the task will be easy. But if the state i to preserve the quality of life fo r which it i known, it will be nece ary. "Why 2100? B cau e you cannot talk about vi ion without dealing with the long term," he says. Past civilizations have been vision– ary, and so can we. Toulan points out in "Oregon 2100" that re ident ' of Cairo in the eleventh century devised primitive m a ures to monitor air quality in different locations and u ed the resu lts to gu ide the placem nt of new home . And in 16th centu ry England, Elizabeth I called fo r the e tablishment of green be lt around Engli h towns to prevent them from "growing into each other," Toulan wrote. The rap id pace of change, both in the United States anc.l in O regon in particular, make planning for the long term all the more important. "We are likely to go down in history as the fir t generat ion of Americans that i so selfi h that we are leav ing ou r ch ildren with overall conditions that are not as good a the condition that our parents left for us," says Toul an. "We are de troying our environment at a much faster pace, we are leavi ng an economy sadd led with national debt. "There is no alternative but talking about the long term." D (John R. Kirkland, a Portland free-lance writer and photographer, is a frequent con– tributor to PSU Magazine.) p u 13