PSU Magazine Spring 2006

Lwo cards to every player. These are Lhe only "down " cards-the only cards players keeps to Lhemselves. All Lhe subsequem cards are "up" and placed in the middle of the Lable. They are communal; all cards are used by all players to add Lo the cards they hold in Lheir hands. Players beL after they receive Lheir down cards, again after Lhe firsL up card, Lhen again afLer three more up cards, and once more when the fifth and final up card is placed on Lhe table. Statistics show that 80 percent of Lhe Lime the up cards will include three or more cards of a straighL, 40 percem of the time there will be three or more cards of a l1ush, and 40 per– cent of Lhe time there will be a pair or beuer. In only one time in 50 will there be none of Lhese things present. The money is in figuring out what everybody is holding in their hands. Bleiler knows that if 10 people are dealt in, there is a 90 percent chance thaL someone at the table can make a three of a kind out of a pair that's showing in Lhe up cards. The chances go down with fewer players. A ou can only go so far with sta– vtisLics, however. The rest is sim– ply figuring out the mindseL and playing style of the people you're play– ing against. This is a major part of game theory: How you react Lo your opponent's straLegic choices? "lf they're conservative, they won't bet on anything low. lf they're maniacs, they'll bet more freely, " he explains. "A bad player might not play his good hand strong enough, or he'll play it too strong. You have to figure out: Do Lhey make poor starting decisions 7 Are they too tight or too loose? Nothing substi– tutes for knowledge of your oppo– nenLs. " Bleiler uses the example of two hypothetical players, Bob and Alice. After several hands of Texas hold 'em, it becomes clear Lo the oLher that each has a certain style of play. Alice has a tendency to play "weak-tight," that is, she'll beL only if she holds a strong card, otherwise she checks. Bob simply likes to play "tight." ln oLher words, he calls only when holding a strong card. Either player also might bluff when betting or calling. Both players are silently calculating the possible payoff of playing a particular sLrategy, know– ing thaL poker is a zero-sum game: Whatever one player wins, the oLher has to lose. "Of course, if either Alice or Bob always plays the same strategy, the oLher will quickly catch on," Bleiler says. "For example, if Alice never bluffs by betting when she holds a weak hand , Bob will soon decide Lo never call unless he has a strong one. Simi– larly, if Bob never calls a possible bluff unless he has a strong hand , Alice will show a profit by bluffing every Lime she is weak. So it behooves the players Lo mix up Lheir game and play each of their strategic choices with a certain probability. " A art of Bleiler's training includes V watching ESPN tapes from pre– vious World Se1ies of Poker tourna– ments in amicipation of playing some of the same players who made it Lo the top. He's looking for behavioral clues. "Serious players have a playbook on other players' strategies, quirks, physi– cal mannerisms-and how meaningful they are. Clues are very subtle, and some players fake them to throw you off." One reliable clue is when a player's pupils dilate. It means he's excited. That's why many players wear dark glasses or baseball caps, Bleiler says. Surviving imo the top rounds at the World Series of Poker, therefore , is noL just a matter of making endless calcu– lations, but enduring hour afLer hour al the card tables, mixing up your own game at the same time you're sizing up your opponent's style of play. As with chess or other games of strategy, suc– cess often means simply making fewer mistakes than the other guy. Yet Bleiler is quick to point out the difference between chess and poker. Chess is a game of "perfect informa– tion" in which everything is showing. There are no secrets; each player knows eve1ything thaLLhe other knows about the slate of the game. Texas hold 'em is a game of "imperfect informa– tion." Some things are showing and some are not. lt's up to each player LO mentally fill in the blanks. For this reason, a game theorisL sLUdying chess would use a whole dif– ferent set of tools than one studying poker, which is more concerned with strategy in the face of uncertainty. Nobel laureate John Nash , the sub– ject of the movie A Beauliful Mind, is a game theorist. So are the winners of the 2005 Nobel Prize in economics. In a sense, so are the actuaries and other decision makers at insurance compa– nies: they calculate the odds of having to pay oUL claims for specific groups of people, and must also decide how much LO charge in premiums to offset those chances. Game theory as well as its applica– tions is seen in so many disciplines– from financial markets to politics to national securiLy-that it's virtually ubiquitous. You even see it in the movies. Remember the scene in The Princess Bride where WesLley and Vizzini are squared off over a table with two goblets of wine, one of which contains lethal poison7 Vizzini spends the next few minmes verbally calculat– ing the odds of choosing the right cup based on what he knows of Westley's personality. UnfortunaLely for Vizzini, both cups are poisoned. A leiler explains part of the game V theory of poker in a leCLure titled "Quit Work , Play Poker, Sleep 'Til Noon," which he's presented at several academic institutions. At the 2005 PSU Weekend, he gave a public lecture on poker, again focusing on the nuances of game theory. Other lectures Bleiler has taken on the road are "Implicit Collusion and the Funda– mental Theorem of Poker" and "Quan– tum Bluffing and Entangled Poker. " Fortunately for PSU, Bleiler finds academic Ii fe more rewarding than professional poker. Still, the fact that he made it into the top Lhird at the 2003 World Series of Poker might give one the impression Lhat he has a decent shot at coming home from Vegas with more cash than he started OUL with. What are the odds7 You'll have Lo ask him. D SPRING 2006 PSU MAGAZINE 17