PSU Magazine Fall 1988

Southern students are much too conser– vative to vote en masse for a liberal Democrat. Smeltzer's students are working on a computer simulation that allows them to manage the campaigns of their chosen candidate through the last two months of the race. If they 've learned anything from Smeltzer they will know to expect a fairly low turnout, to heed popularity polls only after September 1, and to pay attention to the South , because that is the place where many a presidential race has been won or lost. It is because the South is so important that Smeltzer is giving Michael Dukakis only a slim chance of winning in November. Even though the South is mostly Democrat, and Michael Dukakis is Democrat, he said Dukakis is seen as too liberal and too Northern . Bush, he said , appeals to the South's conservative Democrats, and that gives him a big ad– vantage. Dukakis' choice of a running mate, Lloyd Bentsen, a conservative Southern Democrat, won't help. "Michael Dukakis has an almost im– possible row to hoe," said Smeltzer. Heath thinks it will be close, but that the Democrats have a good chance. " I think that after eight years of a minority party occupying the White House you 've got a very good chance that the Democrats could win ," he said. H eath is confident the Democratic candidate this year will get many more votes than the Democrats of '80 and '84, and that the burden of wooing the great mass of middle Americans is clearly on George Bush. " Michael Dukakis could lose the elec– tion through a mistake easier than George Bush could win it," he said . Look at the act Bush has to follow: an idol of the Republicans , the only post– World War II president since Eisenhower to hold two full terms in office, and a man who is leaving office in a shower of hero worship from his party. He was a much bigger hit at the Republican con– vention than Bush could ever hope to be. (John R. Kirkland, a Portland free - lance writer and photographer, has contributed to PSU Magazine in the past.) Just how successful was his presidency is a question to be left to historians and political scientists like Health and Smeltzer. The best any president can hope for over eight years, according to Heath , is three years of real productivity. " It takes a president, as a general rule, two years to learn what to do. The third year in office he's got his team together and he should be able to do something. The fourth year he's running for office. The fifth and sixth year he should be able to get things done. The seventh and eight he's a lame duck ." Reagan was fortunate to have achieved a breakthrough with the Soviets during his last two years , and that will probably stand Bush in good stead in November. But it won't guarantee him the election. "Transferring popularity from one leader to another is one of the most/ri. m- possible things of all. ((rt1 Kings couldn't transfer , 11 'f ~ it to their sons when. ff~I ~# their sons became king. //~ ~ ~;~~~~:~ts~~~d~:a!~~ a~ l ~"i fer 1t to vice pres1- (t\\\.V '-: ~ dents," said Heath. That George Bush is attempting to pick up where Ronald Reagan left off is a fact that has led the pundits to make the almost irresistible comparison of 1988 with 1960. Both elections followed a two-term Republican presidency. Both Republican candidates were incumbent vice presidents. Both Democratic can– didates were from Massachusetts and their running mates from Texas. In that election , John F. Kennedy won , but only by the slimmest of margins. When the final count was taken , he had won by fewer votes than there are precincts in the United States. And with that we have the most interesting com– parison of all , because even if the can– didates themselves arouse little emotion, the outcome of the election will have the sportscasters of the political world on the edge of their seats. Smeltzer is willing to bet on Bush, members of the press are leaning toward Dukakis, and Heath says it's too close to call. The voters will know this time that their votes count , and will have to ask themselves in earnest which man will do the better job. Smeltzer ponders for a moment and smiles. "The other question is, should we trust anybody who wants to become presi– dent of the United States? Think of the ego one would have to want that job. Also, I have to be concerned about some– one willing to have his life disrupted so much to become president. Who in their right mind would want to put themselves in a velvet prison for four years?" O JOE SPOONER PSU 7