PSU Magazine Fall 1988

What are Oregonians going to want from the next president? If history is to repeat itself, they are going to want a Republican. Health rolls out the statistics: in the last 32 presidential elections, Oregon voted Republican 26 times and Democrat six. The only Democrats to win in Oregon were Woodrow Wilson , Franklin Roosevelt (four times by con– vincing margins) , and Lyndon Johnson . Yet Oregonians are not as conservative as the statistics let on. The state has had many Democratic governors, has a 3- 2 Democratic edge in the House of Repre– sentatives, and the state's two U.S. Senators, though Republicans, are known for their liberal views. It will be hard for the state's voters to glean anything "Oregonian" from the campaign rhetoric of either side. Even though George Bush or Michael Dukakis may come to the state and talk about issues they believe Oregonians are con– cerned about - the environment for ex– ample - Heath said the candidates' main purpose in coming here is simply to be seen, to show a measure of concern for the state, and pep up their Oregon-based campaign workers. Said Heath, " Politicians try to look at a state and peg what that state is interested in. It's a huge physical task to campaign in all the states, and it's almost impossi– ble to give a thoughtful speech addressing the real concerns of each place. Often they 're hunches, and they can become cliches. "Oregonians should be looking at policy statements, recognizing that when the candidates are here, you're getting a basic speech. But those basic speeches along the way will give you their basic thoughts and instincts." PSU 6 HEATH: The best any president can hope for over eight years is three years of real productivity. B asic thoughts and values have traditionally been found by look– ing at the party, and Smeltzer makes no bones about which party he belongs to. "It's hard to think of a situation in which I would not vote Democratic. I don't try to hide my biases," said Smeltzer, "but my interest is that the students come out of my course with the 'equipment' to make judgments for themselves." Parties and conventions used to be more influential than they are now in picking the candidates for election , ac– cording to Smeltzer. That power has pro– gressively moved toward the news media - something he is uncomfortable with. Recalling a column by Washington Post writer David Broder, Smeltzer said the number of candidates in this election were whittled down quickly in the primary season because the news media - par– ticularly television - can't concentrate on more than two or three at a time. So, it sees who does well at the outset, concen– trates on them , and lets the others founder in a vacuum. Hence, people like SMELTZER: The other question is, should we trust anybody who wants to become president of the United States? Pierre DuPont and Bruce Babitt - can– didates whq could have built a sizeable following over time - went by the wayside while Bush and Dukakis marched straight to their conventions. That process results in candidates who may not be thoroughly tested or who may not have the full support of their party leaders. Said Smeltzer, "What you don't have today when candidates are nominated is the kind of assurance that you used to have that they have passed at least a threshold of competence." Even if party bosses are fading in im– portance, parties themselves, for the voters, are still important in that they pre– sent what Smeltzer calls "constellations of values" that can guide the voters toward a side. George Bush represents certain values most democrats would not likely identify with. Vice versa with Dukakis. " People who vote party are doing it because of values," he said . Where the public ultimately stands on the value spectrum - from liberal to con– servative - can surprise unwary political strategists ... even experienced political scientists such as Smeltzer. He recalls holding a mock election in his Presidency class in 1984 "when I thought the students thought Reagan was a laughing matter," and was shocked to find most ·Of the class voting for his reelection . George McGovern misread pol itical trends in 1972 when , as the nation was about to experience its first election open to 18-year-olds, he campaigned heavily for the "young" vote. It failed miserably. According to Smeltzer, McGovern should have known that the young represent a low-turnout age group, that children tend to vote like their parents, and that