Inferring and Explaining

39 t ″ 0 . He headed for a soda pop but met Mary Jane and couldn’t control himself. t 2 . Mary Jane staged the whole thing out of revenge. Neither t ′ 0 nor t ″ 0 will count as rival explana- tions. If youwere to challenge Conniewith them, I don’t think she would say, “Oh, yeah, maybe I was wrong,” but rather she’d exclaim, “Exactly!” So what else might have happened? Connie never suggests any rival explanations, but they are easy enough to formulate. He went out for a soda pop, just as he said. When asked about the lipstick stain, he responded that it came from Connie, since she was the only one he had been smooching. Te laundry detergent his mother uses lef a residue on his collar that chemically changed the baby pink lipstick to a bright red color. Mary Jane had been smooching a new guy she met at the record hop, and this messed up her lipstick. We can label this rival explana- tion t 1 . t 1 . The lipstick changed from pink to red because of a chemical reaction with his mother’s laundry detergent. Or the circumstances might be more sin- ister. He lef Connie all alone because he was feeling ill but thought it more decorous to say he wanted a soda pop. Mary Jane has been har- boring a grudge against Connie since the last student council meeting. She found him in the lobby, distracted him, and wiped lipstick on his collar. Afer he lef to return to Connie, Mary Jane smudged her lipstick with the back of her hand. When he returned and was asked about the stain, he told Connie it was hers because she was the only one he had been smooching. Let’s label this one t 2 . t 1 and t 2 were the rival explanations that I came up with when I frst used this example in a conference paper several years ago now. I subsequently used the example in quizzes in several of my critical thinking courses. Many of my students suggested a rival explanation that I now believe is much more challenging to Con- nie’s original theory than either of my earlier attempts. Perhaps the stain really did come from Connie but not that evening at the record hop. She might have been wearing bright red lipstick when they smooched last weekend. He’s not too hot at doing his laundry regularly and wore the stained shirt to the record hop. t 3 . The stain came from a previous episode of smooching when Connie was wearing red lipstick. Rank Ordering Explanations (for Connie’s Argument) We now have on the table four competing accounts of what happened at the record hop. t 0 . He had been smooching Mary Jane dur- ing the half-hour absence. t 1 . The lipstick changed from pink to red because of a chemical reaction with his mother’s laundry detergent. t 2 . Mary Jane staged the whole thing out of revenge. t 3 . The stain came from a previous episode of smooching when Connie was wearing red lipstick. InferenCe to the Best exPlanatIon