Inferring and Explaining

iv Inference to the Best Explanation 28 A Pretty Picture of Science 51 A Couple of Arguments from A Better, But Untidy, Picture of Contents Sherlock Holmes 29 Schematizing the Argument 33 Start at the Bottom (Find the Conclusion) 34 Find the Relevant Evidence 34 Another Brokenhearted Teenager 35 Exercises 35 Quiz Four 35 Notes 35 5. Inference to the Best explanatIon  37 Inference to the Best Explanation 37 Schematizing Connie’s Argument 38 Rival Explanations (of Connie’s Data) 38 Rank Ordering Explanations (for Connie’s Argument) 39 Assessment of (Connie’s) Evidence 40 What about Ties? 41 Te Origins of Natural Language 41 Te Argument Schematized 42 Rival Explanations (of Pinker and Bloom’s Data) 42 Ideal Agnostics 44 Rank Ordering the Explanations (for Pinker and Bloom’s Argument) 44 Disagreements 45 Don’t Forget about the Final Assessment of the Evidence! 46 A Magical Encore? 46 Exercises 46 Quiz Five 47 Notes 47 6. new Data anD experImentatIon  49 Te Crazy Philosopher’s Evidence 49 Why Don’t You Just Test It? 50 Scientifc Disconfrmation 52 A Better, But Untidy, Picture of Scientifc Confrmation 54 Te Signifcance of New Data 54 Exercises 55 Quiz Six 55 Notes 56 7. semmelweIs anD chIlDBeD fever  57 Childbed Fever 57 Ignác Fülöp Semmelweis 58 Te Vienna General Hospital 59 What Was Ten Known 60 Diferences in the Divisions 60 “Fortuitous” New Data 62 An Experiment and a Treatment 62 Semmelweis’s Evidence 63 Te Tragedy of Semmelweis 64 Exercises 65 Quiz Seven 65 Notes 65 8. DarwIn anD common Descent  67 Making Sense of What Is Already Known 67 Te Two Teories 68 Rival Explanations to Common Descent 69 Te Expanded Age of the Earth 70 Te Fossil Record 70 Te Scala Naturae , or the Natural System 71 Patterns of Geographical Distribution 71 Morphological Facts 72 Embryological Facts 73 Darwin’s Evidence for Descent with Modifcation 74 Natural Selection 75 One Long Argument 76