Inferring and Explaining

32 InferrIng and exPlaInIng e 5 . The contents of the messages e 6 . Slaney is the most dangerous crook in Chicago. e 7 . Slaney’s threat to Elsie t ″ 0 . Elsie, and perhaps Mr. Cubitt’s, lives are in danger. • The study window was shut and fastened. • The house was locked from the inside, and no one could have left. • They were both conscious of the smell of powder from the time they awakened upstairs. Sadly, they are too late. Immediately upon their arrival at the train station, they learn of the tragedy. “It’s a terrible business,” said the stationmaster. “Tey are shot, bothMr. Hilton Cubitt and his wife. She shot him and then herself—so the servants say. He’s dead and her life is despaired of.” 5 Te stationmaster has, of course, not only intro- duced crucial new evidence but also ofered an explanation. Holmes proceeds to the murder scene, interviews two servants, and examines the room where the bodies have been found. e 8 . Cubitt is shot dead, and Elsie is gravely wounded with a gunshot to the head. e 9 . A revolver is found, still containing four bullets. e 10 . The servants report several things: • Both were awakened by the sound of a loud gunshot. • A short while later, they heard a second shot. • The victims were downstairs in the study. • A strong smell of gun smoke in the study. Tere are still several pages to go in Te Adven- tures of the Dancing Men , but Holmes has now basically solved the case. His reasoning is classic inference to the best explanation (IBE). Howand why did Mr. Cubitt and Elsie come to be shot? Why were the servants conscious of the smell of powder while upstairs? And what about the mysterious Slaney? Holmes is particularly fascinated by the pow- der aroma upstairs—“I commend that fact very carefully to your attention.” 6 Holmes’s provi- sional hypothesis is that the window must have been open and the draf carried the smell. Care- ful examination of the study produces one last crucial bit of evidence. e 11 . A third bullet is discovered in the win- dow sash. A third bullet! Someone else is involved! Tey examine outside the window and discover important new data. e 12 . Trampled fowers, large masculine foot- prints, and a spent cartridge But why only the sound of two gunshots? Te frst onewas extremely loud.Might it “have been two shots fred almost at the same instant”? 7 Holmes concludes “it was undoubtedly so.” 8